引入积温效应预测夏季西安市电力气象负荷     

卢珊  浩宇  王百朋  张宏芳 《气象科技》2017,45(6):1090-1094

利用2010—2012年6—8月西安市逐日电力负荷资料及对应时段地面观测站数据,分析了高温天气过程中日最大电力负荷的变化特征。结果发现,3年间西安地区共发生晴热天气过程5次,闷热天气过程4次,其中晴热天气过程发生在6月,闷热天气过程发生在7、8月,且闷热天气过程的电力负荷增长更加明显;利用日最高气温变化跟踪气象负荷的变化发现,日最高气温33℃为西安市气象负荷初始气温敏感点,35℃为强气温敏感点,38℃为极强气温敏感点;引入积温累积效应,建立了多元回归的电力气象负荷预测模型,经2013年夏季模型应用检验表明,日最大电力负荷预测平均误差为6.0%,能较好的模拟电力负荷的实际变化,对西安市夏季电力气象服务工作有指导意义。  相似文献   

辽宁省潜在蒸散发量及其敏感性规律分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

曹永强  高璐  袁立婷  李维佳 《地理科学》2017,37(9):1422-1429

采用Penman-Monteith法和敏感系数法对辽宁省1965~2014年潜在蒸散发量及影响潜在蒸散发的气象因子敏感性进行分析,探讨气候变化下影响辽宁省潜在蒸散发量变化的主导因子及潜在蒸散发对气候变化的定量响应。结果表明：① 近50 a辽宁省潜在蒸散发呈现显著减少趋势,在空间上由西向东递减;② 潜在蒸散发对气象因子的敏感性在年尺度上表现为,水汽压最为敏感,其次为太阳辐射、风速、平均气温;在季节尺度上,春季和秋季对平均气温最不敏感,夏季对风速最不敏感,冬季对太阳辐射最不敏感;③ 空间分布上,气象因素的敏感系数与气象因子空间变化规律相吻合,潜在蒸散发对气温的敏感性由北部向南部递增,对水汽压、太阳辐射的敏感性由东部向西部递减,而风速与之变化趋势相反。④ 风速的显著降低是辽宁省潜在蒸散发量下降的主要原因,太阳辐射的下降及水汽压的升高也促使了潜在蒸散发量的下降。  相似文献   

Mapping crime harm and priority locations in New Zealand: A comparison of spatial analysis methods     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

Despite progress being advanced with spatial approaches to crime and crime control, the geography of crime harm has to date received little attention. The recent development of “Crime Harm Indices”, which weight crimes by an estimate of the relative harm they cause, offers an opportunity to improve on volume based spatial analysis approaches to identify where crime harm concentrates.This study aims to address this issue via the use of a Crime Harm Index (CHI) developed for New Zealand. By contrast to localized ‘harm-spotting’ analysis, we apply a census unit based approach to identify, at a macro level, the neighborhoods and wider communities suffering the highest crime harm in New Zealand. This approach enables harm to be viewed not only as a total Index but as a rate controlled for population and allows for the identification of census based sociodemographic factors which predict harm. Specifically, this paper compares the CHI with the New Zealand Priority Locations Index (PLI), an existing census unit based crime analysis tool which combines crime and demographic variables to identify communities vulnerable to crime and disorder issues.In this study CHI and PLI scores were calculated for Census Area Units (normally containing 3000–5000 population) across New Zealand. Bivariate correlations and a general linear model were used to determine the relationships between the CHI and PLI and additional population related variables. The CHI and PLI were weakly correlated, with population size and urban/rural categorization also accounting for CHI variance. Mapping techniques are used to illustrate outlier locations where the CHI and PLI differ widely and to identify location features which may assist in explaining CHI/PLI differences.This work exemplifies a novel geographic approach to the problem of crime harm with implications for resource allocation at national through to local levels. Wider implications for the theory and practice of crime and crime harm control are discussed, along with limitations of the study and areas for further research.  相似文献   

渤海湾巨葛庄贝壳堤与下伏泥层有孔虫组合的海面变化意义     

李建芬  苏盛伟  商志文  姜兴钰  陈永胜  王福  田立柱  王宏 《地质通报》2016,35(10):1584-1589

根据巨葛庄贝壳堤及下伏泥层的有孔虫研究,讨论了贝壳堤底板和下伏泥层各类沉积环境的海面意义,以此作为海面标志点重建的古海面误差范围为±0.225~±0.625m。结合该贝壳堤底板和下伏泥层顶板的年龄数据,重建了3900~3300cal BP时的海面高度为-2.955~-2.715m。  相似文献   

莱州湾南岸全新世相对海平面变化重建     

田立柱  陶有兵  姜兴钰  陈永胜  施佩歆  商志文  李建芬  王福  王宏 《地质通报》2016,35(10):1679-1691

在对莱州湾南岸8个钻孔沉积物沉积结构及有孔虫特征分析基础上,识别相关海面标志层位,辅以加速器质谱AMS14C测年,重建了全新世相对海面变化历史,并讨论了海面变化的沉积响应及控制因素。约9200cal BP以前,海面快速上升,研究区海侵时海面于-21.5m左右;9200~8400cal BP海面上升速率减缓至约2mm/a;8400~8000cal BP海面由-14m快速上升至-5.5m,速率约为33mm/a;8000~7600cal BP,海面持续数百年停滞或微弱下降;7600~7000cal BP海面由-5.5m快速上升至0m以上,速率至少约为13mm/a;7000~6000cal BP海面缓慢上升至+2~+3m位置,速率约为3mm/a;约6000cal BP以后海面缓慢下降至现今水平。约9200cal BP以前、8400~8000cal BP、7600~7000cal BP时期的3次海面快速上升,是MWP-1C融水脉冲、诱发8.2ka冷事件的融水脉冲,以及MWP-2融水脉冲的中纬度地区响应。中全新世全球冰融趋于停滞后,由于研究区沉积盆地沉降速度较慢,在冰川均衡调整效应下,使+2~+3m的相对高海面得以呈现。  相似文献   

季节性冰封热融浅湖水温原位观测及其分层特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

黄文峰  韩红卫  牛富俊  李志军 《水科学进展》2016,27(2):280-289

为探究季节性冰封浅湖热力学特征,于2010年10月至2013年7月对高原腹地一典型热融湖塘冰层生消、水/冰温及气象条件开展原位观测,分析了水温分布时间变化、温跃层以及冰生消对水温结构的影响。结果发现:冰面升华显著,贯穿整个冰期;水温日变化、季节变化和垂直结构受气温、大气辐射、风速、冰生消和湖底沉积层热贡献影响显著;在"无冰期-结冰前-冰生长期-冰融化期-融化后-无冰期"年循环过程中水温垂直结构分别呈现出"分层-翻转-逆温分层-逆温与正温共存-翻转-分层"的循环过程。分层期水温结构仅由上部混合层和温跃层构成,且偶因强风搅动而全湖翻转混合。可见,相比大中型湖泊,季节性冰封浅湖热力学结构差异显著。  相似文献   

伊通盆地鹿乡断陷C区块含油饱和度与含油性分析     

赵石乐  程日辉  蒋飞  许中杰  刘柏依 《世界地质》2016,35(4):1084-1094

综合研究伊通盆地鹿乡断陷双二段储层的岩性、含油性和含油饱和度,确定了适用于本区的含油饱和度计算方法,并与实际含油性进行了对比,分析了沉积和构造对含油性的影响。研究区双二段含油储层的岩性以粉砂岩、细砂岩和砂砾岩为主,含油级别为荧光级以上。根据阿尔奇公式计算出的含油饱和度大部分与实际的含油性相符合,并将含油饱和度70%、50%和38%值作为本区气层、油层、油水层和水层的区分标准。本区储层的含油性受到沉积和构造两方面的控制,沉积作用主要控制储层的岩石结构和物性,构造控制油气的聚集,即在构造高部位,实际含油饱和度比计算结果要高,而在构造低部位,实际含油饱和度比计算结果要低。  相似文献   

Simulation of groundwater level recovery in abandoned mines,Fengfeng coalfield,China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

MA Luan  WANG Guang-cai  SHI Zhe-ming  GUO Yu-ying  XU Qing-yu  HUANG Xu-juan 《地下水科学与工程》2016,4(4):344-353

Abandoned mines are of high potential risk as they could be a large underground storage of pollutants(heavy metals and organic wastes, etc.). Various physical, chemical and biological reactions would take place when groundwater flows into underground spaces, which makes abandoned mine a huge potential hazard to groundwater environment. The recovery of groundwater level is one of the key elements controlling the reactions and causing such hazards. This paper simulated groundwater level recovery processes in the abandoned mines, Fengfeng coalfield by using the computer program FEFLOW. The paper integrated the pipe flow model, "three zones" model and groundwater inrush(discharge) model in the simulation of groundwater in the complex laneway-aquifer system. Groundwater flow in the laneway systems was considered pipe flow and described in Bernoulli equation. The water-bearing medium(coal seam roof) overlying the laneway systems was divided into "three zones" composed of the caving zone, fissure zone and bending zone based on the disruption degrees of previous mining. Groundwater in the Ordovician limestone aquifer(bottom of coal seam) flowing into laneway systems was considered a major inrush/recharge source, and its flow rate was calculated by an inrush(discharge) model which was newly developed in this study and incorporated into FEFLOW. The results showed that it would take approximately 95 days for groundwater in abandoned mines to recover to regional groundwater level elevation, and the total amount of water filling up would be about 1.41195×10~7 m~3, which is consistent with the actual data. The study could be of theoretical and practical significance to mitigate abandoned mines' hazards and improve mine groundwater utilization.  相似文献   

中国盐湖沉积年代学研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

曾方明 《盐湖研究》2016,24(1)

盐湖沉积记录了区域的气候和水文变化,是重要的古气候研究对象。年代学是盐湖古气候研究最重要的一项内容,是后续几乎所有工作的基础。盐湖沉积最常用的定年方法有₁₄C定年、铀系定年、光释光(OSL)定年、古地磁定年。受各种定年方法自身的局限性以及盐湖沉积特有的沉积特征,存在不同方法测出的年龄差异较大的现象。准确测定盐湖沉积的年代还较为困难,一定程度制约了盐湖古气候研究的发展。由于盐湖沉积有机质含量低,易受现代碳的污染,其₁₄C年代老于30 cal ka BP时,测出的年龄可能已饱和,需要谨慎对待。未来需要加强铀系定年和光释光定年等方法在盐湖沉积中的基础研究,并开发新的更好的测年方法,提高盐湖沉积测年的准确度,为深入开展盐湖古气候变化及成盐成矿规律研究提供坚实基础。  相似文献   

托素湖沉积物中重金属元素分析及地球化学特征研究          下载免费PDF全文

成艾颖  余俊清  高春亮  洪荣昌  张丽莎 《盐湖研究》2016,24(3)

首次对托素湖沉积岩芯上部沉积物的重金属元素Cr、Cd、Cu、Zn和Pb的含量进行分析测试。精确测得沉积物中Cr,Cd,Cu,Zn和Pb的平均浓度分别为32.9 mg.kg-1,2.2 mg.kg-1,19.5 mg.kg-1,188.5 mg.kg-1和32.3 mg.kg-1。与区域背景值和标准值相比,托素湖沉积物样品中Cd和Zn都偏高。研究结果表明除了Cd污染程度比较严重,托素湖当前的Cr、Cu、Zn和Pb污染程度相对较轻。各元素经Ti校正后的分析结果显示,重金属元素含量在沉积剖面的10cm处出现波动性增大的明显转折,表明托素湖沉积物中Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn和Pb主要来源于流域侵蚀的造岩矿物元素,Cd污染可能源于人类活动所致。 关键词：托素湖;重金属元素;污染程度;地球化学特征  相似文献